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The Spatial Patterning of Land Use Conversion: Linking Economics, Hydrology, and Ecology to Evaluate the Effects of Alternative Future Growth Scenarios on Stream Ecosystems

• Principal Investigators
• Project Summary
• Summary of Research Objectives & Specific Tasks
• Significance of Research
• 2002 Annual Progress Report
• Preliminary Results

New work: Linking land use to global climate change

• Overview
• Hydrologic component
• Economic component
• Geomorphic component
• Ecological component

Principal Investigators

Project Summary

Conversion of land to human usage has degraded freshwater ecosystems throughout the United States and worldwide. In this project, we are interested in how three aspects of land conversion influence stream habitat and ecosystem health: the timing of conversion, the rate of conversion, and the arrangement of different types of land use within an area. Further, we wish to examine how government policy and economic analysis can be used to guide future growth patterns in a manner that minimizes ecological degradation.

To accomplish our objectives, we are developing a model that predicts the hydrologic and geomorphic factors that influence conditions along streams, taking into account the land use history and patterns. We are also collecting ecological data at multiple locations within the watersheds that will then be combined to determine how land use patterns and history of development influence local ecological conditions. Using innovative predictive models, we will forecast future development patterns. With these three models linked together, we will assess how various growth patterns are likely to influence stream habitat and associated ecological condition. Through collaboration with local government policy-makers and scientists, we will evaluate the effectiveness of current land use policies and restoration programs in minimizing the ecological consequences of land use conversion in urbanizing watersheds.

Summary of Research Objectives & Specific Tasks

Objective I: Using current and past conditions, examine how the timing and rate of development, as well as the type and geographic pattern of development, influence stream hydrology and geomorphology; link these influences to the effects on the structure and function of stream ecosystems.

1. Choose a set of watersheds and selected subwatersheds and use GIS data and other sources to trace the historical development of land use in the study areas
2. Determine the historical and contemporary hydrologic and geomorphic setting
3. Empirically relate the hydrology and geomorphology to current structural and functional ecological conditions

Objective II: Evaluate the effectiveness of local government policies in altering the pattern of development and in mitigating the impact of development on stream ecosystems.

1. Incorporate specific local government policies aimed at controlling and/or redirecting growth into a spatially explicit economic model of land use conversion
2. Assess the consequences and effectiveness of past and current stormwater management regimes in the context of land use history and related hydrologic and geomorphic changes
3. Determine how land use interacts with restoration success

Objective III: Use scientifically derived relationships from Objectives I & II to make and test projections about future development and its ecological implications, and compare stream health measures under different geographical patterns of development.

1. Use the geographically-explicit model of land-use conversion to forecast future development patterns under different scenarios
2. Use geographically-explicit hydrologic models to predict changes in flood frequency behavior, sediment fluxes and size distributions, and channel cross-section geometry under the different scenarios
3. Link the land use change and hydrologic response model with scientifically derived projections of ecological conditions in the associated subwatersheds to assess how specific arrangements of development influence ecological conditions at a variety of geographic scales

Significance of Research

• Develops innovative research models for evaluating effects of land use change
• Contributes to wise natural resource management
• Accommodates expected human growth AND needed environmental integrity